Is it true that someone in America would contract bird flu next year?

There is a bet about this, "...there is a 65 percent chance that someone in the United States will contract bird flu by March..". See: Betting on Bird Flu.

Until now, there is no such case in America yet. We know that the migrating birds spread the bird flu in Asia and Europe.
Therefore, everywhere in the world would not be safe.

Most incidences are about bird to bird. It is only the Asian might suffer bird to human infection. Reasons include poultry management and operation, population density, environment, knowledge and safety precaution etc.

When chickens, ducks etc. are running around in open area, there is great chance to contact the feces of flying birds. I think that the cause of infection may not be close contact between birds. Instead, flying birds would shower their feces in their paths and it would be easy for those chickens to pick up the flu virus.

Such practice seems to be limited to farmers in developing countries. The difficulty is that even they were told about this threat, they might not care because they did not want to change anything that had been so for years. They are stubborn, may be, but most would not have the chance to work it right the next time. Just like a doctor said, the good thing is the high mortality rate so that the virus host had no chance to transmit. It is not like AIDS that has the infected staying alive and let many others infected.

I guess that the bet would not be won because such conditions are rare if not entirely free of in America.